About Me

In 2012, I finished tied for 4th in the country at predicting the NCAA Tournament field. I finished far ahead of ESPN's Joe Lunardi (37th), CBS's Jerry Palm (52nd), and SI's Andy Glockner (85th). How my bracket compares to brackets from experts can be found on The Bracket Project: http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/2011/11/2011-12-bracket-matrix-links.html

Sunday, March 16, 2014

FINAL Projections as of March 16


Seed
SOUTH- Memphis

WEST- Anaheim

MIDWEST- Indianapolis

EAST- New York
     1


Florida (SEC)
Arizona
Wichita State (MVC)
Virginia (ACC)
     2


Villanova
Iowa State (BIG 12)KansasMichigan
     3


Duke
Michigan State
(BIG TEN)
WisconsinLouisville (AAC)
     4


Cincinnati
CreightonSyracuseSan Diego State
     5


Oklahoma
UNCConnecticutUCLA (PAC 12)
     6


Kentucky
VCUNew MexicoOhio State
     7


Texas
Saint LouisUMassBaylor
     8


George Washington
Gonzaga (WCC)
OregonMemphis
     9


Colorado
Oklahoma State
Kansas StateSt. Joseph's (A-10)
    10

Stanford


Arizona StateXavierPitt
    11


Iowa
Providence
(BIG EAST)
Tennessee/SMUDayton
    12


Harvard (IVY)
North Dakota State (SUMMIT)Stephen F. Austin (SOUTHLAND)Nebraska/BYU
    13


Manhattan (MAAC)
Western Michigan (MAC)Tulsa (C-USA)Delaware (CAA)
    14


Mercer
(ATLANTIC SUN)
Louisiana-Lafayette
(SUN BELT)
Eastern Kentucky (OVC)New Mexico State (WAC)
    15


NC Central (MEAC)
American (PATRIOT)Weber State
(BIG SKY)
Milwaukee (HORIZON)
    16
Texas Southern (SWAC)/
Cal Poly
(BIG WEST)
Wofford (SOUTHERN)Mount St. Mary's (NEC)/
Coastal Carolina
(BIG SOUTH)
Albany
(AMERICA EAST)

NOTE: Teams with their conference in parentheses are the projected conference champions.

Last 4 In:                  Tennessee vs. SMU              Nebraska vs. BYU
First Out: Cal, Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, Southern Miss, NC State, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay

Last In:

Tennessee: RPI- 42, SOS- 22.  Tennessee will be going to the NCAA Tournament.  They only dropped to the First Four game because Providence got an automatic bid.  

SMU: RPI- 52, SOS- 113.  SMU is a much better team that their resume would indicate.  But with only 4 RPI top 100 wins, 3 bad losses, and a nonconference SOS of 294, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.  Teams that have done much more than SMU have been left out before in previous years, so it wouldn't be a total shock if they were left out.  I doubt it, but it is possible.

Nebraska: RPI- 48, SOS- 25.  Their win over Wisconsin likely clinched their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Minnesota are very solid and while they didn't do anything out of conference, 11 wins in the Big Ten should be enough.

BYU: RPI- 31, SOS- 24.  Wins over Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga, an RPI of 33, and a nonconference SOS of 4 are very impressive.  4 bad losses (Loyola-Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Pacific) are concerning, but their wins over sure tournament teams are better than most other bubble teams.  Making it to the WCC finals will likely be enough to get them in.


First Out:

Cal: RPI- 63, SOS- 32.  Wins over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and Arkansas are very impressive, but a weak RPI and only going 8-12 vs. the RPI top 100 and 12-12 vs. the RPI top 150 put them in danger of missing out on the tourney.  Losing to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT.

Minnesota: RPI- 49, SOS- 7.  Wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa and a SOS of 7 are very impressive, but they are only 14-12 vs. the RPI top 200.  They probably had to beat Wisconsin to realistically have a shot at an at-large bid.

Florida State: RPI- 53, SOS- 33.  Florida State has some solid wins, including over UMass, VCU, and Pitt, but they are only 6-12 vs. the RPI top 100.  A trip to the NIT seems inevitable.

Missouri: RPI- 50, SOS- 69.   Since Missouri's best wins are against UCLA and Tennessee, both at home, and have 7 losses outside the RPI top 50, they are probably headed to the NIT.


Bids by Conference:
BIG 12:        7
PAC 12:       6
A-10:           6
BIG TEN:    6
ACC:            5
AAC:            5
BIG EAST:   4
SEC:             3
MWC:          2
WCC:           2

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Projections as of March 16 at 12:30 AM EST


Seed
SOUTH- Memphis

WEST- Anaheim

MIDWEST- Indianapolis

EAST- New York
     1


Florida (SEC)
Arizona (PAC 12)
Wichita State (MVC)
Michigan (BIG TEN)
     2


Virginia (ACC)
Iowa State (BIG 12)KansasVillanova
     3


Louisville (AAC)
WisconsinCreightonDuke
     4


San Diego State (MWC)
SyracuseMichigan StateCincinnati (AAC)
     5


UNC
ConnecticutUCLA (PAC 12)Oklahoma
     6


Baylor
VCU (A-10)Ohio StateNew Mexico (MWC)
     7


Saint Louis
KentuckyUMassTexas
     8


George Washington
Gonzaga (WCC)
OregonMemphis
     9


Colorado
Oklahoma State
Kansas StatePitt
    10

Arizona State


St. Joseph'sXavierStanford
    11


Iowa
Providence
(BIG EAST)
DaytonTennessee/SMU
    12


Harvard (IVY)
North Dakota State (SUMMIT)Stephen F. Austin (SOUTHLAND)Nebraska/BYU
    13


Western Michigan (MAC)
Tulsa (C-USA)Manhattan (MAAC)Delaware (CAA)
    14


Georgia State
(SUN BELT)
New Mexico State (WAC)Mercer
(ATLANTIC SUN)
Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
    15


Milwaukee (HORIZON)
American (PATRIOT)Weber State
(BIG SKY)
NC Central (MEAC)
    16
Texas Southern (SWAC)/
Cal Poly
(BIG WEST)
Wofford (SOUTHERN)Albany
(AMERICA EAST)
Mount St. Mary's (NEC)/
Coastal Carolina
(BIG SOUTH)

NOTE: Teams with their conference in parentheses are the projected conference champions.

Last 4 In:                  Tennessee vs. SMU              Nebraska vs. BYU
First Out: Cal, Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, Southern Miss, NC State, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay

Last In:

Tennessee: RPI- 42, SOS- 22.  Tennessee will be going to the NCAA Tournament.  They only dropped a spot because Providence got an automatic bid.  

SMU: RPI- 52, SOS- 113.  SMU is a much better team that their resume would indicate.  But with only 4 RPI top 100 wins, 3 bad losses, and a nonconference SOS of 294, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.  Teams that have done much more than SMU have been left out before in previous years, so it wouldn't be a total shock if they were left out.  I doubt it, but it is possible.

Nebraska: RPI- 48, SOS- 25.  Their win over Wisconsin likely clinched their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Minnesota are very solid and while they didn't do anything out of conference, 11 wins in the Big Ten should be enough.

BYU: RPI- 31, SOS- 24.  Wins over Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga, an RPI of 33, and a nonconference SOS of 4 are very impressive.  4 bad losses (Loyola-Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Pacific) are concerning, but their wins over sure tournament teams are better than most other bubble teams.  Making it to the WCC finals will likely be enough to get them in.


First Out:

Cal: RPI- 63, SOS- 32.  Wins over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and Arkansas are very impressive, but a weak RPI and only going 8-12 vs. the RPI top 100 and 12-12 vs. the RPI top 150 put them in danger of missing out on the tourney.  Losing to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT.

Minnesota: RPI- 49, SOS- 7.  Wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa and a SOS of 7 are very impressive, but they are only 14-12 vs. the RPI top 200.  They probably had to beat Wisconsin to realistically have a shot at an at-large bid.

Florida State: RPI- 53, SOS- 33.  Florida State has some solid wins, including over UMass, VCU, and Pitt, but they are only 6-12 vs. the RPI top 100.  A trip to the NIT seems inevitable.

Missouri: RPI- 50, SOS- 69.   Since Missouri's best wins are against UCLA and Tennessee, both at home, and have 7 losses outside the RPI top 50, they are probably headed to the NIT.


Bids by Conference:
BIG 12:        7
PAC 12:       6
A-10:           6
BIG TEN:    6
ACC:            5
AAC:            5
BIG EAST:   4
SEC:             3
MWC:          2
WCC:           2

Projections as of March 15 at 6:30 PM EST


Seed
SOUTH- Memphis

WEST- Anaheim

MIDWEST- Indianapolis

EAST- New York
     1


Florida (SEC)
Arizona (PAC 12)
Wichita State (MVC)
Michigan (BIG TEN)
     2


Virginia (ACC)
WisconsinKansasVillanova
     3


Louisville (AAC)
Iowa State (BIG 12)Creighton
(BIG EAST)
Duke
     4


San Diego State (MWC)
SyracuseMichigan StateCincinnati (AAC)
     5


UNC
VCU (A-10)ConnecticutOklahoma
     6


Texas
UCLAOhio StateBaylor
     7


Kentucky
UMassNew MexicoSaint Louis
     8


Memphis
Gonzaga (WCC)
OregonGeorge Washington
     9


Colorado
Oklahoma State
Kansas StatePitt
    10

St. Joseph's


XavierArizona StateStanford
    11


Iowa
TennesseeDaytonSMU/Nebraska
    12


Harvard (IVY)
North Dakota State (SUMMIT)Toledo (MAC)BYU/Providence
    13


Stephen F. Austin (SOUTHLAND)
Tulsa (C-USA)Manhattan (MAAC)Delaware (CAA)
    14


Georgia State
(SUN BELT)
New Mexico State (WAC)Mercer
(ATLANTIC SUN)
Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
    15


Wofford (SOUTHERN)
American (PATRIOT)Milwaukee (HORIZON)NC Central (MEAC)
    16
Cal Poly
(BIG WEST)/
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Weber State
(BIG SKY)
Albany
(AMERICA EAST)
Mount St. Mary's (NEC)/
Coastal Carolina
(BIG SOUTH)

NOTE: Teams with their conference in parentheses are the projected conference champions.

Last 4 In:                  SMU vs. Nebraska              BYU vs. Providence
First Out: Cal, Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, Southern Miss, NC State, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay

Last In:

SMU: RPI- 52, SOS- 113.  SMU is a much better team that their resume would indicate.  But with only 4 RPI top 100 wins, 3 bad losses, and a nonconference SOS of 294, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.  Teams that have done much more than SMU have been left out before in previous years, so it wouldn't be a total shock if they were left out.  I doubt it, but it is possible.

Nebraska: RPI- 48, SOS- 25.  Their win over Wisconsin likely clinched their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Minnesota are very solid and while they didn't do anything out of conference, 11 wins in the Big Ten should be enough.

BYU: RPI- 31, SOS- 24.  Wins over Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga, an RPI of 33, and a nonconference SOS of 4 are very impressive.  4 bad losses (Loyola-Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Pacific) are concerning, but their wins over sure tournament teams are better than most other bubble teams.  Making it to the WCC finals will likely be enough to get them in.

Providence: RPI- 47, SOS- 66.  Wins over Creighton and Xavier are their only 2 RPI top 50 wins, and they are only 7-10 vs the RPI top 100.  They would be smart to just go ahead and get the automatic bid.  


First Out:

Cal: RPI- 63, SOS- 32.  Wins over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and Arkansas are very impressive, but a weak RPI and only going 8-12 vs. the RPI top 100 and 12-12 vs. the RPI top 150 put them in danger of missing out on the tourney.  Losing to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT.

Minnesota: RPI- 49, SOS- 7.  Wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa and a SOS of 7 are very impressive, but they are only 14-12 vs. the RPI top 200.  They probably had to beat Wisconsin to realistically have a shot at an at-large bid.

Florida State: RPI- 53, SOS- 33.  Florida State has some solid wins, including over UMass, VCU, and Pitt, but they are only 6-12 vs. the RPI top 100.  A trip to the NIT seems inevitable.

Missouri: RPI- 50, SOS- 69.   Since Missouri's best wins are against UCLA and Tennessee, both at home, and have 7 losses outside the RPI top 50, they are probably headed to the NIT.


Bids by Conference:
BIG 12:        7
PAC 12:       6
A-10:           6
BIG TEN:    6
ACC:            5
AAC:            5
BIG EAST:   4
SEC:             3
MWC:          2
WCC:           2

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Projections as of March 14


Seed
SOUTH- Memphis

WEST- Anaheim

MIDWEST- Indianapolis

EAST- New York
     1


Florida (SEC)
Arizona (PAC 12)
Wichita State (MVC)
Wisconsin
     2


Michigan (BIG TEN)
SyracuseKansas (BIG 12)Villanova
     3


Virginia (ACC)
Iowa StateCreighton
(BIG EAST)
Duke
     4


Louisville
Michigan StateSan Diego State (MWC)Cincinnati (AAC)
     5


UNC
Saint Louis (A-10)Ohio StateOklahoma
     6


Texas
ConnecticutVCUUMass
     7


New Mexico
BaylorUCLAMemphis
     8


Colorado
Gonzaga (WCC)
OregonKentucky
     9


George Washington
Oklahoma State
Kansas StateStanford
    10

Xavier


Arizona StatePittDayton
    11


SMU
St. Joseph'sBYU/NebraskaIowa
    12


Southern Miss
(C-USA)
North Dakota State (SUMMIT)Toledo (MAC)Tennessee/Providence
    13


Delaware (CAA)
Manhattan (MAAC)Stephen F. Austin (SOUTHLAND)Harvard (IVY)
    14


Georgia State
(SUN BELT)
UC-Irvine
(BIG WEST)
Mercer
(ATLANTIC SUN)
Eastern Kentucky (OVC)
    15


American (PATRIOT)
Milwaukee (HORIZON)Utah Valley (WAC)NC Central (MEAC)
    16
Mount St. Mary's (NEC)/
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Weber State
(BIG SKY)
Stony Brook
(AMERICA EAST)
Wofford (SOUTHERN)/
Coastal Carolina
(BIG SOUTH)

NOTE: Teams with their conference in parentheses are the projected conference champions.

Last 4 In:                  BYU vs. Nebraska               Tennessee vs. Providence
First Out: Cal, Minnesota, Florida State, Missouri, Green Bay, Belmont, St. John's, Georgetown

Last In:

BYU: RPI- 34, SOS- 24.  Wins over Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga, an RPI of 33, and a nonconference SOS of 4 are very impressive.  4 bad losses (Loyola-Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Pacific) are concerning, but their wins over sure tournament teams are better than most other bubble teams.  Making it to the WCC finals will likely be enough to get them in.

Nebraska: RPI- 41, SOS- 28.  Their win over Wisconsin likely clinched their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Minnesota are very solid and while they didn't do anything out of conference, 11 wins in the Big Ten should be enough.  

Tennessee: RPI- 43, SOS- 22.  Wins over Virginia and Xavier keep them very much in the discussion, but these are their only 2 RPI top 50 wins.  Losses to Texas A&M (twice) and UTEP don't help, but beating South Carolina in the SEC Tournament might be enough to get them in because no other bubble teams behind them are making a hard push to get in.

Providence: RPI- 51, SOS- 63.  Wins over Creighton and Xavier are their only 2 RPI top 50 wins, and they are only 7-10 vs the RPI top 100.  Beating St. John's was big, and if they beat Seton Hall, they will reach the Big East championship game, which could be enough for an at-large bid. 


First Out:

Cal: RPI- 57, SOS- 25.  Wins over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and Arkansas are very impressive, but a weak RPI and only going 8-12 vs. the RPI top 100 and 12-12 vs. the RPI top 150 put them in danger of missing out on the tourney.  Losing to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT.

Minnesota: RPI- 47, SOS- 9.  Wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa and a SOS of 9 are very impressive, but they are only 14-12 vs. the RPI top 200.  They probably have to beat Wisconsin to realistically have a shot at an at-large bid.

Florida State: RPI- 52, SOS- 38.  A win over Virginia would get them in.  A loss would probably mean a trip to the NIT.  

Missouri: RPI- 49, SOS- 75.   A win over Florida would get them in.  A loss would definitely mean a trip to the NIT.  


Bids by Conference:
BIG 12:        7
PAC 12:       6
A-10:           6
BIG TEN:    6
ACC:            5
AAC:            5
BIG EAST:   4
SEC:             3
MWC:          2
WCC:           2