Sunday, March 12, 2017

NCAA Projections as of March 12

Projections as of March 12

EAST- New York

MIDWEST- Kansas City

SOUTH- Memphis
WEST- San Jose

Villanova (BIG EAST)
Gonzaga (WCC)

Duke (ACC)
Kentucky (SEC)BaylorArizona (PAC 12)

Florida StateOregonLouisville

ButlerFloridaWest Virginia

Iowa State (BIG 12)
Notre DameCincinnatiPurdue

Wisconsin (BIG TEN)MinnesotaCreighton

DaytonSt. Mary'sMichigan

South Carolina
ArkansasOklahoma State

MarquetteVirginia Tech

Seton Hall

Michigan StateXavierWichita State (MVC)
Rhode Island (A-10)

Providence/Wake ForestMiddle Tennessee

Nevada (MWC)

Princeton (IVY)Kansas State/USCUNC-Wilmington (CAA)

Bucknell (PATRIOT)
Winthrop (BIG SOUTH)East Tennessee State (SOUTHERN)

New Mexico State (WAC)
Florida Gulf Coast (ATLANTIC SUN)Northern Kentucky (OVC)Iona (MAAC)

Kent State (MAC)Texas Southern (SWAC)North Dakota (BIG SKY)
New Orleans (SOUTHLAND)/
Mount St. Mary's (NEC)
Jacksonville State (OVC)

South Dakota State (SUMMIT)/
NC Central (MEAC)


NOTE: Teams with their conference in parentheses are the projected conference champions.

Last 4 In:                    Providence vs. Wake Forest              Kansas State vs. USC
First Out:   Illinois, Syracuse, Cal, Illinois State, Iowa, UT-Arlington, Indiana, Georgia

Last In:
Providence- RPI: 56, SOS: 46, OOC SOS: 179, Kenpom: 56
                      1-4 vs. Top 25, 6-8 vs. Top 50, 8-9 vs. Top 100, 3 bad losses
                      Wins over tournament teams: 7 (Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette x2, URI)
7 wins over tournament teams will earn Providence an at-large bid.  Their OOC SOS is pretty weak and they have two terrible losses to Boston College and DePaul, but their vast amount of quality wins will offset those blemishes. 

Wake Forest- RPI: 39, SOS: 17, OOC SOS: 14, Kenpom: 30
                        1-7 vs. Top 25, 3-10 vs. Top 50, 8-13 vs. Top 100, 0 bad losses
                        Wins over tournament teams: 3 (Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami)
Wake Forest finally got the big wins they needed to solidify an at-large bid when they beat Louisville and Virginia Tech to close out the regular season.  Their RPI of 39 and Kenpom ranking of 30 are fantastic and they do not have a single bad loss.  Even though Wake does not have a high number of quality wins, they will be dancing. 

Kansas State- RPI: 57, SOS: 39, OOC SOS: 230, Kenpom: 29
                         3-7 vs. Top 25, 4-9 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, 2 bad losses
                         Wins over tournament teams: 4 (Baylor x2, West Virginia, Oklahoma State)
Kansas State's quality wins are about as impressive as any team on the bubble.  Combine those wins with a Kenpom ranking of 29 and that should be enough to offset a weak OOC SOS and a couple questionable losses. 

USC-               RPI: 41, SOS: 73, OOC SOS: 149, Kenpom: 60
                        2-6 vs. Top 25, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 6-8 vs. Top 100, 1 bad loss
                        Wins over tournament teams: 2 (UCLA, SMU)
It wouldn't surprise me too much if USC was left out of the tournament.  They have a general lack of quality wins with only 2 wins against the Top 50, but those wins were both very impressive wins over UCLA and SMU.  A poor Kenpom ranking combined with a weak SOS for a Power conference team could have them on the outside looking in, but the committee might reward them for their duo of Top 20 wins.  

First Out:
Illinois- RPI: 63, SOS: 22, OOC SOS: 42, Kenpom: 70
              1-4 vs. Top 25, 5-9 vs. Top 50, 10-11 vs. Top 100, 1 bad loss
              Wins over tournament teams: 4 (VCU, Michigan, Northwestern x2)
Every year, the selection committee includes a team that no one has on the at-large radar.  If that happens this year, I give Illinois the best chance to be that surprise team.  Almost everyone wrote them off after their loss to Rutgers, and while that was a bad loss, it was their only bad loss of the season.  Illinois has 4 quality wins over tournament teams and 10 Top 100 wins, which few teams on the bubble can claim.  Stranger things have happened. 

Syracuse- RPI: 84, SOS: 58, OOC SOS: 195, Kenpom: 51
                  3-4 vs. Top 25, 6-8 vs. Top 50, 8-9 vs. Top 100, 5 bad losses
                  Wins over tournament teams: 5 (Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Miami, Wake Forest)
Syracuse is clearly a good team, as evidenced by their victories over Duke, FSU, and Virginia, but is their resume good enough for an at-large bid?  An RPI of 84 would traditionally have a team nowhere close to the bubble, and a weak OOC SOS and 5 bad losses will factor against them, especially when two of those losses were to Boston College and to St. John's by 33 points.  If Syracuse gets an at-large bid, then we can throw RPI, SOS, and all other metrics out the window in the future because the only factor the committee would care about is quality wins.  

Cal-             RPI: 54, SOS: 45, OOC SOS: 32, Kenpom: 58
                    0-7 vs. Top 25, 2-8 vs. Top 50, 6-12 vs. Top 100, 0 bad losses
                    Wins over tournament teams: 1 (USC)
At times, Cal definitely looked like a tournament team, especially their two near-wins over Oregon.  But they were unable to come up with any really quality wins on the season, so they will be on the outside looking in. 

Illinois State- RPI: 34, SOS: 125, OOC SOS: 150, Kenpom: 52
                        0-0 vs. Top 25, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100, 2 bad losses
                        Wins over tournament teams: 1 (Wichita State)
Illinois State had an excellent season, but with a weak SOS and their only good win of the season over Wichita State, they will be NIT bound. 

Bids by Conference:
ACC:              9
BIG TEN:       7
BIG EAST:     7
BIG 12:         6
SEC:              5
PAC 12:        4
A-10:            3
AAC:             2
WCC:            2

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