Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Projections as of March 12

SOUTH- Memphis

WEST- Anaheim

MIDWEST- Indianapolis

EAST- New York

Florida (SEC)
Arizona (PAC 12)
Wichita State (MVC)
Villanova (BIG EAST)

Virginia (ACC)Kansas (BIG 12)Michigan (BIG TEN)

Iowa State

Michigan StateSan Diego State (MWC)Cincinnati (AAC)

Saint Louis (A-10)Ohio StateOklahoma


New Mexico

Gonzaga (WCC)
KentuckyGeorge Washington

Arizona State
Oklahoma State
ColoradoKansas State



St. Joseph's

Southern Miss
North Dakota State (SUMMIT)Toledo (MAC)Tennessee/Cal

Delaware (CAA)
Manhattan (MAAC)Stephen F. Austin (SOUTHLAND)Harvard (IVY)

Georgia State
Boston U (PATRIOT)Eastern Kentucky (OVC)

Utah Valley (WAC)
Milwaukee (HORIZON)UC-Irvine
NC Central (MEAC)
Mount St. Mary's (NEC)/
Texas Southern (SWAC)
Weber State
Stony Brook (AMERICA EAST)
Wofford (SOUTHERN)/
Coastal Carolina

NOTE: Teams with their conference in parentheses are the projected conference champions.

Last 4 In:                  BYU vs. Nebraska               Tennessee vs. Cal
First Out: Arkansas, Providence, Minnesota, Georgetown, Florida State, Missouri, St. John's, Belmont

Last In:

BYU: RPI- 33, SOS- 44.  Wins over Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga, an RPI of 33, and a nonconference SOS of 8 are very impressive.  4 bad losses (Loyola-Marymount, Pepperdine, Portland, Pacific) are concerning, but their wins over sure tournament teams are better than most other bubble teams.  Making it to the WCC finals will likely be enough to get them in.

Nebraska: RPI- 41, SOS- 27.  Their win over Wisconsin likely clinched their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Minnesota are very solid and while they didn't do anything out of conference, 11 wins in the Big Ten should be enough.  

Tennessee: RPI- 43, SOS- 25.  Wins over Virginia and Xavier keep them very much in the discussion, but these are their only 2 RPI top 50 wins.  Losses to Texas A&M (twice) and UTEP don't help, but if they can beat Arkansas in the SEC Tournament, they should be able to wrap up an at-large bid.

Cal: RPI- 55, SOS- 30.  Wins over Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, and Arkansas are very impressive, but a weak RPI and only going 8-11 vs. the RPI top 100 and 12-11 vs. the RPI top 150 put them in danger of missing out on the tourney.  They will likely have to beat Colorado again in the PAC 12 Tournament to have a chance at an at-large bid.

First Out:

Arkansas: RPI- 62, SOS- 84.  Their at-large status looked pretty solid until they got crushed by Alabama, giving them another bad loss and a big hit to their RPI.  They have to win at least 2 games in the SEC Tournament, including a win over Tennessee, and hope their RPI and SOS improve.  

Providence: RPI- 53, SOS- 63.  Wins over Creighton and Xavier are their only 2 RPI top 50 wins, and they are only 5-10 vs the RPI top 100.  They will have to beat St. John's and probably Villanova in the Big East Tournament to get an at-large bid.  

Minnesota: RPI- 51, SOS- 7.  Wins over Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa and a SOS of 7 are very impressive, but they are only 13-12 vs. the RPI top 200.  They have to get at least 2 wins, including a win over Wisconsin, in the Big Ten Tournament to realistically have a shot at an at-large bid.

Georgetown: RPI- 54, SOS- 10.  Wins over VCU, Michigan State, Kansas State, Creighton, Xavier, and Providence are by far better than any other bubble team.  But those 3 bad losses (Northeastern and Seton Hall twice) are killers and will likely force Georgetown to make a deep run in the Big East tournament to secure an at-large bid.  A win over Creighton would be huge, but reaching the Big East finals will probably be necessary for an at-large bid.  

Bids by Conference:
PAC 12:       7
BIG 12:        7
A-10:           6
BIG TEN:    6
ACC:            5
AAC:            5
SEC:             3
MWC:          2
WCC:           2

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